01/30/09

Momutum carried downward pressure.  Staged a come back, hit resistence at half point, with a short burst of fake brake out.  Then the news come out, Bad Bank is on hold, all bets off, stock sold off aggressively, no hope ahead.  

The government will have a different solution, or push ahead with the same solution.  Stock might bounce but the trend suggest that it will be going lower.  

Talk on buying gold, stock breaking new lows, and shorting treasury has picked up.  

01/29/09

The market test highs , and it broke down,  there is no reason for any high prices.  Rally from the previous days were due to the Bad Bank Expectations.  Stimulus will do very little to lift the economy, it is more tax cut the social safety net.  

01/28/09

The "Bad Bank" news finally broke, market reached its high.  People were not expecting the big bad stimulus, but rather the bank rescue plan.  Although the market pushed to its high at the final hour, but trading from previous day suggested that the market had reached its highs.  Also there is no reason to go any higher.

Also Fed suggest to buy treasury if needed, it meant war against anyone that will be shorting treasuries.  But that is clear sign for the treasury holder that there is a problem. 

01/27/09

The market is very unsettled at its high, less people believe that there are good reason for the rally, real tug of war between bullish view and bearish view.  

01/26/09

01/23/09

01/22/09

01/21/09

01/20/09

01/16/09

01/15/09

01/14/09

01/13/09

01/12/09

01/09/09

01/08/09

01/07/09

01/06/09

The order number for Nov. was terrifying, but service number for Dec. was much better.  Market started off high, then sold off.  Found bottom at yesterday's close price.  Fed meeting wasn't encorage, and market fail to push to new high, sold off quickly at last hour.  Lots of put interest at the end.  

01/05/09

There were lots of activities on merges and acquisition, banks are also buying bad assets, good sign that confidence is coming back into the market.  

General market environment is favorable for bull rally.  However the market sold off at first, due to advances from the last few days.  Obama's 300 billion tax cut was the main focus.  Market rally stopped at 933 area, and only one attempt to break that level, but failed, then it sold off to intraday lows.  At the end of day, Obama warned the severity of the economy and potential unemployment on Friday, spooke the market for about 15 mins, and it recovered most of the lost.  

It looks like the market will try to break the new highs again in the next few days. If that happens, the market will be in a new level for further advancement.   Dallor had significant gain, euro isn't good enough to replace dallar, that was the conclusion.  Treasury has been sold off, might be the begining of clapse.  Corporates continue to do well, espesially for high yields, again, a sign of confidence.  

Don't follow the crowed, and if stock market movement is hesitating, that means not good, and get out.  

01/03/09

Things to watch out:

**ECB Rates on 01/15/09.

Auto sales on Monday.

**Obama stimulus plan.

*UK second bail out on financials 

01/02/09

The first of trading day in 09, market rallied about 3%, followed rallyies in overseas.  Light trading day, after initial dip, ISM number was much worse, it rebounded, ISM number was dismissed.  Though out of the day, trading was light, price line on the chart was very smooth.  Huge put interest in SPY, much higher than usually volume, not a good sign for betting the stock will go down.    Before noon time, market hit a resistance, and no sharp drops, price just hover under the resistance line for a while.  Again and again that has been proven to be a bullish sign.  Though out the day, there is no choppy price movement, and the market just kept going up.  No sell off either at the closing, which I think that everyone are betting that the market will do well next week.  

Unlike yesterday, when the market hits the top level of the day, huge increase in trading volme, and price gets very choppy, and market sold off after market is closed.